(Go back to prior step: Define Your Risk Level)
Tactical Asset Allocation—Winter, 2021/22
There really is nothing that can take the place of proper asset allocation when it comes to growing and protecting your wealth throughout the economic cycle. What happens when you ignore your own risk level and your proper asset allocation portfolio? Consider the Americans who lost over 50% of their investment portfolio value between 2000 and 2002 because we were in a "new economy" and "old rules no longer apply."
No. Refuse to be one of the victims of a shock to the system by taking these four simple steps:
No. Refuse to be one of the victims of a shock to the system by taking these four simple steps:
- Identify your Risk Number
- Assure your portfolio is aligned with the appropriate portfolio below based on your unique Risk Number
- Use a combination of the 100 investments in the five Penn Strategies to fill in where you are underweighted
- Create your own Personal Financial Website to assure you remain on track building personal wealth as efficiently as possible
Members, select the appropriate image below to sign in and view recommended asset allocations for Summer, 2023...
Not a member?
Not a member, but want to see the current recommended allocations? Just shoot us an email at
[email protected], headline "Allocations"
[email protected], headline "Allocations"
Summer 2023 Commentary...
Mid-year review: Let's revisit our original (and only) set of predictions for the year...
(01 Jul 2022) Pet peeve: analysts changing their predictions on where the stock market will be by the end of the year as the year goes on. We're not sure they understand how predictions work. That's like betting on who will be next year's Super Bowl champs and trying to change that bet six times during the season based on how the teams are doing. Try that with a Vegas bookie.
The funniest thing about the morphing predictions from the analysts is that the vast majority of them knocked their year-end targets down by the end of the first quarter after 2022's ugliness carried into the new year. Then the market rallied, and they look even more foolish by adjusting their targets back up. Not us. Here's what we predicted in our 2023 Outlook edition of The Penn Wealth Report.
We predicted a 12% gain in the S&P 500, with it hitting 4,300 (at 4,450 now). We saw the NASDAQ surging 16% after losing one-third of its value in 2022. It is now up precisely double that amount after posting its strongest first-half of a year since 1983! Here's an interesting one: We were most excited (and still are) about the small-cap Russell 2000 index, and saw it rallying to 2,100 by the end of the year. It now sits at 1,889, or 11% below that mark. In other words, if we are correct, small caps should have a strong second half (we have recently added another small-cap holding to the Penn Dynamic Growth Strategy to take advantage of this belief).
We predicted the federal funds rate would top out around 5% and stay there for some time. Right now, the effective federal funds rate is 5.07%, with the Fed chief strongly signalling one more hike. We saw gold hitting $2,200 per ounce due in good measure to the government's irresponsible spending—the Fed may be tightening but the $31.7 trillion national debt continues to rise. Also, geopolitical risks push gold prices higher. Gold is only up 5.36% as of this writing, meaning it still appears to be a strong investment idea (plus a true hedge). We saw oil being stuck in a trading range throughout the year, which has certainly been the case.
Bears seem to be doubling-down on their dire predictions given at the end of 2022, almost as if they are offended by the current rally. We take the flip side of that argument. We see more positives than negatives, with the Fed about done, the war in Ukraine grinding on (bad for Putin), and reports of a recession greatly exaggerated. As always, proper asset allocation is key. Members can see our current recommended allocations by selecting one of the graphics below.
—MSH, Penn Wealth
(01 Jul 2022) Pet peeve: analysts changing their predictions on where the stock market will be by the end of the year as the year goes on. We're not sure they understand how predictions work. That's like betting on who will be next year's Super Bowl champs and trying to change that bet six times during the season based on how the teams are doing. Try that with a Vegas bookie.
The funniest thing about the morphing predictions from the analysts is that the vast majority of them knocked their year-end targets down by the end of the first quarter after 2022's ugliness carried into the new year. Then the market rallied, and they look even more foolish by adjusting their targets back up. Not us. Here's what we predicted in our 2023 Outlook edition of The Penn Wealth Report.
We predicted a 12% gain in the S&P 500, with it hitting 4,300 (at 4,450 now). We saw the NASDAQ surging 16% after losing one-third of its value in 2022. It is now up precisely double that amount after posting its strongest first-half of a year since 1983! Here's an interesting one: We were most excited (and still are) about the small-cap Russell 2000 index, and saw it rallying to 2,100 by the end of the year. It now sits at 1,889, or 11% below that mark. In other words, if we are correct, small caps should have a strong second half (we have recently added another small-cap holding to the Penn Dynamic Growth Strategy to take advantage of this belief).
We predicted the federal funds rate would top out around 5% and stay there for some time. Right now, the effective federal funds rate is 5.07%, with the Fed chief strongly signalling one more hike. We saw gold hitting $2,200 per ounce due in good measure to the government's irresponsible spending—the Fed may be tightening but the $31.7 trillion national debt continues to rise. Also, geopolitical risks push gold prices higher. Gold is only up 5.36% as of this writing, meaning it still appears to be a strong investment idea (plus a true hedge). We saw oil being stuck in a trading range throughout the year, which has certainly been the case.
Bears seem to be doubling-down on their dire predictions given at the end of 2022, almost as if they are offended by the current rally. We take the flip side of that argument. We see more positives than negatives, with the Fed about done, the war in Ukraine grinding on (bad for Putin), and reports of a recession greatly exaggerated. As always, proper asset allocation is key. Members can see our current recommended allocations by selecting one of the graphics below.
—MSH, Penn Wealth
Aggressive Growth Portfolio: If your Risk Level is above 90
Conservative Growth Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 51-89
Growth & Income Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 28-50
Asset Preservation Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 27 or below
