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Tactical Asset Allocation—Winter 2019/20

There really is nothing that can take the place of proper asset allocation when it comes to growing and protecting your wealth throughout the economic cycle. What happens when you ignore your own risk level and your proper asset allocation portfolio? Consider the Americans who lost over 50% of their investment portfolio value between 2000 and 2002 because we were in a "new economy" and "old rules no longer apply."

No. Refuse to be one of the victims of a shock to the system by taking these three simple steps:
  1. Identify your Risk Number
  2. Assure your portfolio is aligned with the appropriate portfolio below based on your unique Risk Number
  3. Use a combination of the 100 investments in the five Penn Strategies to fill in where you are underweighted
We update these portfolio allocations quarterly, based on market and economic conditions, and threats/opportunities we see on the horizon. 


Members, select the appropriate image below to sign in and view recommended asset allocations for spring, 2020...
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Not a member, but want to see the current recommended allocations? Just shoot us an email at
member.services@PennWealth.com, headline "Allocations"

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Spring, 2020 Commentary...

Allocate for a comeback, but with strict risk management triggers in place.

(05 Jan 2020, Excerpt from The Penn Wealth Report Market Outlook 2020) We see very little chance of our nightmare scenario playing out, but it feels as though investors have stoked up a little too much confidence going into 2020. About the time that the most timid of investors, the ones who always see the “little guy” getting the shaft, seep back into the markets, trouble generally hits. After a remarkably good 2019, the fear of missing out is palpable, and very few emotionally-driven individuals will be able to resist getting their “fair share” of the gains.

There may not even be a direct, easily-identifiable catalyst for the downturn. After the fact, the analysts will rush to the screens to tell viewers that “of course, market valuations simply got too rich.” They will also remind viewers that they opined to take some money off the table—which may or may not be true, but who will hold them accountable?

As the downturn begins to snowball, all of the dormant fears—geopolitical turmoil, dysfunction in Washington, inflation concerns, trade worries—will bubble back up to the surface of investors’ minds like a specter in the night. How much could the market drop in such a scenario? While impossible to pinpoint, something in the range of 10% to 15% in the S&P 500 seems more than possible.

At this point, it will be critical for investors to remain true to their appropriate tactical asset allocation and ignore, to the greatest possible extent, the inevitable hyperbolic headlines. When the dust settles on 2020, we see mid- to upper-single-digit gains for the major averages. The worst possible course of action would be to lock in losses during a trough due to headline risk, and then wait for the rebound to buy in at higher levels.

—MSH, Penn Wealth

Aggressive Growth Portfolio: If your Risk Level is above 90

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Conservative Growth Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 51-89

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Growth & Income Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 28-50

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Asset Preservation Portfolio: If your Risk Level is 27 or below

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Disclaimer

Any opinions expressed are those of Penn Wealth Publishing, LLC and are current only through the date published. These views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions, and no forecast can be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Always consult your investment professional before investing any money. Any and all commentary and data on this Site is for informational purposes only, and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any investment. Penn Wealth Publishing is a separate entity from Penn Wealth Management, LLC, our registered investment advisory firm.
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  • Home
  • Products & Services
    • Market Downturn Toolkit
    • Professional Wealth Management
    • Personal Financial Website
    • Market Outlook
    • Penn All Access
    • The Penn Global Leaders Club 2019
    • The Report
    • Worksheets & Tools
    • Building Your Empire
  • Our Organization
    • Which Route
  • Trading Desk
    • Trading Desk Private
  • The Penn Strategies
    • Penn Portfolios
    • Penn Strategic Income Portfolio
    • Penn Dynamic Growth Strategy
    • Penn Global Leaders Club
    • Penn Intrepid Trading Platform
    • Penn New Frontier Fund
  • Strategic Vision
    • The Blueprint
    • Leadership Academy >
      • Corporate Culture
    • Project Management
    • Western Civilization >
      • American Spirit
  • Command & Control
    • Action Environment
    • Health & Longevity >
      • Cellular Health
    • Science of the Mind >
      • Focus
    • Time Management
  • Harvesting Gold
    • Business Development >
      • Building Your Business
      • Sales, Marketing, & Advertising >
        • Penn Digital Marketing
        • Advertising
        • Branding Strategy
      • SWOT Analysis
    • Business Finance
    • Personal Finance >
      • Balance Sheet >
        • The Investment Vault >
          • Company Plans
          • Individual Retirement Accounts
        • Debt
      • Cash Flow >
        • Income
        • Expenses
  • Tactical Awareness
    • The Human Connection
    • Risk Management
    • Taxation >
      • Capital Gains & Losses
  • Investment Intelligence
    • Tactical Asset Allocation >
      • Tactical Asset Allocation—Private
    • Charts of the Week
    • Fixed Income Desk
    • Market Downturn Strategies
    • Science & Technology Investor >
      • Information Technology
      • Space Sciences & Exploration
    • Sector Weightings
    • Strategies & Tactics >
      • Behavioral Finance
      • Fundamental Analysis >
        • Investment Valuation
      • Mergers & Acquisitions
      • Momentum Investing
      • Technical Analysis
    • Under the Radar Private
  • The Journey
    • Travel & Leisure >
      • Latin America